At a time when scientists revealed the possible dire consequences ofglobal warming phenomena The new ones in the eighties of the last century, they seemed desperate to maintain their credibility, as the sequence of the collapse of the planet seemed far off, and even the press was dealing with the issue from the outside and timidly, so as not to cause the subject to lose reputation by creating panic.
Now more and more scientists are now openly admitting that they are afraid of recent climate fluctuations, such as floods in Pakistan and West Africa, droughts and heat waves in Europe and East Africa, and rampant thawing at the poles.
It’s not because an increase in the extremes of climate change is not expected, but the suddenness and ferocity of recent events that worries researchers, as well as the unclear threat of tipping points – through which greenhouse gases will become unstoppable.
Climate computer models have typically predicted a fairly steady, but smooth, rise in temperatures. But recently, the climate appears to have faded.
To underscore these concerns, the Canadian town of Lytton, for example, produced a “dome” of trapped heat that raised the temperature to 49.6 degrees Celsius. Forest fires also broke out and destroyed the city. A prominent member of the Royal Society, Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, reacted to the news with disbelief at first. Before the look of exclamation turns into intense fear, according to the newspaper “The Guardian”, and reviewed by “Al Arabiya.net”.
The high temperature itself was shocking enough, but surprisingly enough, it beat the previous record by five degrees, when records were usually beaten by a few tenths of a degree.
And in July this year, the UK saw for the first time a temperature rise of 40 degrees Celsius. And two years ago, researchers said the chances of that happening in this decade were 1%. Data for that day revealed a truly unusually high temperature in Bramham, Yorkshire, breaking the previous record by 6.5 degrees Celsius.
Professor Hannah Kluck, from the University of Reading, said: “This kind of thing is really scary. It’s just one statistic among a torrent of extreme weather events that have been known as ‘natural disasters’.
But the threat of long-term, unstoppable change is what worries the Director of the British Antarctic Survey, Professor Dame Jane Francis, as temperatures in the Antarctic have seen 40 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average and 30 degrees Celsius higher in the Arctic.
Frances was even more alarmed by a recent report warning that if the 1.5°C threshold, which most scientists considered almost inevitable, is crossed, it could lead to multiple climate tipping points — abrupt, irreversible and dangerous.
She emphasized her concerns about permafrost, the Greenland ice sheet, the Arctic sea ice, the Thwaites Glacier and the West Antarctic ice sheet.
“These multiple impacts will affect the entire planet, as well as the local population,” she said. As a geologist rather than a climate modifier, she looks back in time for clues about the Earth as it is today, with the level of inflated carbon dioxide, which peaked at around 420 parts per million in May.
The last time the planet experienced 400 parts per million of carbon dioxide 3 to 4 million years ago was during the Pliocene when global sea levels were 10-20 meters higher and temperatures 2-3 degrees Celsius higher. These changes occurred over millions of years. Now we seem to be forcing these changes to our planet in much shorter periods of time.”
For most people, the crisis is manifested in extreme weather events. North America and Europe have suffered their own climatic wounds with scorching temperature records and wildfires.
In California, record rainfall has failed to quell the dry effects of drought years. Florida, whose Republican leaders voted against climate change policies, begged Washington for money after Hurricane Ian swept through the state.
There was a heavy loss of life from floods in Nigeria, and summer in Europe brought relentless heat. Motorways in France were closed as forest fires broke out. Forest fires also swept Spain, Portugal and Greece. Northern Italy could lose up to half of its agricultural production due to a drought that has dried up parts of the country’s longest river, the Po.
And all this only with 1.1 ° C or 1.2 ° C of warming. Unless more drastic action is taken, we are heading towards a warming of between 2°C and 3°C. He urges political scientists not to detect a feeling of global warming of two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Scientists are also frustrated by the limitations of their knowledge. Professor Richard Allan, lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said: “Climate change is going to get worse. A global rise of 1.5°C would be much worse than it is now. But when you get down to local scales, we are going to extremes more than we don’t. Models can capture it. This includes droughts and floods at the local level. These events are hard to visualize.”
So scientists are in trouble. They are sure things will get worse. They don’t know exactly when and how much. They know that if they appear to be campaigning, they may lose their credibility. But an increasing number of them are so worried that they are trying to strike different notes to shock politicians and the public.
Professor Piers Forster, former lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the University of Leeds, said: “I have tried to change the way I communicate to make it more personal and emotional. The severe impacts are bad now and they will only get worse. But then you have to give people hope and ourselves hopeful.” Scientists. We can slow the rate of warming immediately if we act now.”