reported New expectations From the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, China’s sudden lifting of strict restrictions to combat COVID-19 could lead to an explosion in the number of cases and more than a million deaths over the next year.
According to forecasts, the number of cases in China will reach its peak on the first of April, and deaths will reach 322,000. About a third of China’s population will have been infected by then, Christopher Murray, director of the institute, said.
China’s National Health Commission has not recorded any official Covid deaths since the restrictions were lifted. The last official deaths were announced on December 3.
The total number of deaths due to the pandemic reached 5,235.
China lifted some of the world’s toughest COVID-19 restrictions in December after unprecedented public protests, and infections are now surging, with fears the coronavirus could infect 1.4 billion people during next month’s Lunar New Year holiday.
Demonstrations against the closure measures in China due to Corona – archive
“No one thought they would stick to a zero Covid policy like they did,” Murray said on Friday when the institute’s forecast was released online. He added that the zero Covid policy may be effective in controlling the virus, but the high transformability of Omicron mutants makes it impossible to continue applying that policy.
Other experts expect that about 60 percent of the Chinese population will eventually be infected with the virus, and infections are expected to peak in January and will be in the most vulnerable groups such as the elderly and others.
Disease experts at the University of Hong Kong predict that the simultaneous lifting of restrictions and reopening of provinces in December 2022 and January 2023 will result in 684 deaths per million people during that time, according to a document published on Wednesday on the medical website MedRexiv. time frame.
Based on China’s population of 1.41 billion and without measures such as mass vaccination, the number could reach 964,400 deaths.